弹炮一体化防空系统的服务概率模型

弹炮一体化防空系统是未来高技术局部战争中应急机动部队的主要防空武器。首先给出了弹炮一体化防空系统服务概率的定义 ,然后通过研究这种防空武器对目标服务过程的特点 ,建立了服务概率计算模型 ,为评价这种防空武器的射击能力和系统效能 ,提供了必要的分析手段     

光电对抗在对巡航导弹分层防御中的应用

针对现代防空体系的特点,介绍了巡航导弹及其制导方式,并从巡航导弹自身弱点、实战中的不足以及技术上的可对抗性进行了各方面分析,提出了巡航导弹是可以进行对抗的,尤其是利用光电对抗手段进行对抗的可行性、重要性.目前对巡航导弹的分层防御相对来说费用相当昂贵,而采用光电对抗手段是廉价而又有效的.通过对光电对抗的可行性分析,列出了以侦察告警、定向红外干扰、高重频激光干扰、激光致盲、激光摧毁、烟幕干扰、光电隐身等光电对抗手段进行对抗巡航导弹的方法,并进行探讨.最后对光电技术及光电对抗装备技术的发展趋势作了描述.     

防空导弹武器系统探测拦截低空飞行器模型

在分析了防空导弹武器系统探测和拦截低空飞行器影响因素的基础上,建立了在综合考虑雷达散射面积、飞行高度、阵地遮蔽角和电磁干扰环境下,防空导弹武器系统对低空飞行器的探测和拦截模型,为防空作战方案的仿真论证、防空武器的火力分配方案生成提供依据.实际使用证明,该模型贴近实战,可信度高.     

战术防空激光武器发展概况

空中攻击与防空作战在相互斗争中发展,随着空中威胁目标种类变化、性能提高,作为防空武器的一个重要的新型分支,防空激光武器在快速发展,将在近程防空与反导中起重要作用。综述了空中威胁变化对激光武器的需求,激光武器的分类、组成与特点,以及国外战术防空激光反导武器系统发展概况。     

基于粗糙集理论的防空C~3I系统目标威胁度综合评判

目标威胁度的估计是防空C3I系统中辅助决策的基础,各个威胁因素权系数的确定历来缺乏严格的数学基础。针对此问题,提出应用粗糙集理论,对空防对抗中各种威胁因素的原始数据进行挖掘,利用其求得各项威胁因素的属性的重要度,进行权值化处理,使得各项威胁因素权系数的确定有效克服了传统方法的主观性,使得各项权系数的确定更具客观性,提高威胁度估计的准确性。     

Lessons in airpower projection: Indochina and Algeria

The lessons from the two French counterinsurgencies, Indochina and Algeria, give rise to a new understanding of the projection of airpower in remote and hostile environments and the purpose, design, and use of aircraft in counterinsurgency. In both Indochina and Algeria, the campaigns were ones of poverty, and it is their imaginative management under severe resource constraints that provides thoughtful and applicable lessons for today. In both cases, airpower held the promise of delivering victory and solving the resource issue. In Indochina, acquisition of the needed aircraft, operating knowledge, and experience came too slowly to realize this promise. In Algeria, the French embraced the lessons from Indochina and were quite successful and innovative in the use of airpower. The lessons can be reduced to four requirements: (1) a network of airfields for liaison, ground-support, and intra-theater airlift to enable effective air support of ground forces; (2) a solid, reliable, and simple ground-support aircraft capable of operating from forward airfields within range of ground engagements; (3) a capable intra-theater heavy-lift transport to supply the extended ground forces; and (4) helicopter capability to enhance tactical troop mobility and support.     

How the High North became Central in NATO Strategy: Revelations from the NATO Archives

From the late 1970s and until the end of the Cold War, the ‘High North’ constituted a central theatre for military forces. Extensive NATO preparations were made, a solid infrastructure developed in northern Norway, and frequent and large-scale exercises were carried out. These developments, from the late 1970s, were much discussed by scholars and strategists. However, the change of perception, laying the foundation for the military build-up, had actually occurred a decade earlier, in the late 1960s. This change has not yet been given its rightful attention, partly because the relevant documents have only recently become available. This essay takes the chronology of events back into the 1960s and to NATO's secret discussions between the national Ministers of Defence and Chiefs of Staff. The most significant turning-points were the Flexible Response strategy of 1967; SACLANT's concern over increased Soviet naval activity and his ‘Maritime Strategy’ studies of 1965 and 1967; NATO's awakening to the Soviet SSBN threat in 1967; and the concept of ‘External Reinforcement of the Flanks’ of 1968 – finally followed by the ‘Brosio Study’ (named after the then NATO Secretary-General) of 1969. As a consequence of these developments NATO's ‘tactical northern flank’ was set to become an independent strategic theatre.     

SOCIAL PREFERENCES FOR NATIONAL DEFENCE AND POLICE ENFORCEMENT IN WESTERN EUROPE

We study the determinants of social preferences for national defence and for police and law enforcement. For this task, we estimate a bivariate ordered probit model for a set of European countries (France, Finland, Norway, Portugal, Spain and Sweden) in 2006. Determinants of spending decisions for defence and police are found to be linked but are of significantly different magnitudes. Besides, measures against terrorist threats are positively linked to police and defence spending increases, while the subjective perception of fiscal pressure has no influence. Finally, no significant differences are found between Northern and Southern Europe.     

Allocating the U.S. Department of Defense Budget: Revisiting the ‘Incremental/Fair Share Model’

Abstract

This article examines the ‘incremental/fair share model’ that was proposed by Alex Mintz in 1988 concerning the budget allocation of the U.S. Department of Defense. Although Mintz was unable to confirm the correctness of his model, this study demonstrated it to be statistically significant. In the statistical analyses, I used the two-stage least squares method and Durbin’s h-test to better scrutinize the model’s adequacy. Few previous studies have addressed the allocation of the U.S. defence budget; consequently, the incremental/fair-share model should constitute a starting point for further research on the U.S. defence budget allocation.     

Country survey XII: South Africa

This article examines the relationship between defence expenditure and economic performance in South Africa, both prior to and after that country's first fully democratic election in 1994. Prior to 1994 defence expenditure decisions were largely dominated by non‐economic factors; since then defence spending has declined in reaction to, inter alia, the need to address a number of socio‐economic inequities.

After 1975 in particular, military industrialisation in South Africa placed a disproportionately high burden on the country's industrial resources and natural economic and technical capabilities. However, although this suggests that the opportunity cost of domestic arms production has been fairly high, the country's poor economic and development performance since the mid‐1970s is a function of underlying structural deficiencies and institutional constraints rather than the consequence of inordinately high defence spending levels.